Bitcoin could tumble below $30,000 this year as the air comes out of the crypto bubble, according to Invesco’s list of “improbable but possible” outcomes for 2022.
“The mass marketing of bitcoin reminds us of the activity of stockbrokers in the run-up to the 1929 crash,” Paul Jackson, the US investment company’s global head of asset allocation, said in a note Monday.
‘We think it is not too much of a stretch to imagine bitcoin falling below $30,000 this year,’ Jackson said, adding he believes there’s at least a 30% chance of it happening.
Bitcoin soared in 2021 from around $33,000 at the start of the year to as high as $69,000 in November, before falling to end the year at roughly $46,000. The world’s first and biggest cryptocurrency has since slumped further to trade at around $42,319 as of Monday, according to prices on the Bitstamp exchange.
Jackson said bitcoin could be seen as a financial mania, meaning steep losses could soon be on their way.
“A loss of 45% is experienced in the 12 months after the peak of a typical financial mania,” he wrote.
If bitcoin follows that pattern, its price will fall to between $34,000 and $37,000 by October. But Jackson said a steeper drop is possible, and the digital asset could slip below $30,000.
But that scenario is far from certain, the Invesco strategist cautioned. “Last year, we spoke of bitcoin falling below $10,000, but instead it reached a peak of around $68,000,” he noted.
Yet there are growing signs that investors are worried about the outlook for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Investment bank UBS published a note last week looking at whether the space might be headed for a new “crypto winter” – a period when prices fall sharply and fail to recover for more than a year.
Interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2022 could well dent the appeal of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin in the eyes of many investors, according to the UBS analysts, led by James Malcolm.
They also said there’s also a growing realization among crypto investors that bitcoin is not “better money,” because it’s highly volatile and its limited supply makes it inflexible.